Robert Menendez

Polls: Much Ado About Margins of Error

Polls - love them or hate them - are here to stay. Polls may be statistically significant ("outside the margin of error") or statistically not significant (within the margin of error). Often people calculate statistical significance as twice the reported margin of error of the poll.
There are other factors to consider: how recent was the poll, how large was the sample size, does the pollster have a reputation for bias, and are there other polls with which to compare it. If there are more than two candidates in the race or a substantial number of undecided respondents the results may be confounding.
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