Q Poll: Murphy opens lead in primary, (sort of) loses ground in general

9:15 A.M. Statement from Chris Murphy.

"No one in the field can match Chris' record of fighting for middle class jobs and families in Connecticut. That's why Democrats support him by a 30 point margin to take on Linda McMahon in November. McMahon has already spent millions on the air trying to change her image, and ultimately we know that she is going to massively outspend us on the airwaves. But we're building the best and strongest grassroots campaign Connecticut has ever seen, and just like in 2010, voters aren't going to let McMahon buy this election."

UPDATE 8:45 A.M. In response to the latest Q-Poll, the Susan Bysiewicz campaign continues the Wall Street narrative against Chris Murphy.

"Today's poll does nothing to change the fact that Chris Murphy has taken over hundreds of thousands of dollars from Wall Street PACs, refused to return JP Morgan's PAC contributions in the wake of their $2 billion loss driven by a return to casino style trading, and has no plan to hold Wall Street Accountable or fix the economy. This election is about who will stand up for the middle class and hold Wall Street Accountable. Over the next two and a half months we'll engage the 700,000 Democrats who are elgible to vote in the August primary about who has the best plan to accomplish these goals."


The latest poll from Quinnipiac has plenty of positive and negatives for the Democratic front runner in the senate race.

1. In the primary, Chris Murphy widens his lead over Susan Bysiewicz.

(If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Murphy and Susan Bysiewicz, for whom would you vote?

TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Murphy and Susan Bysiewicz, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

This data from the Q-Poll s pretty much a mirror image of Murphy's internal polling data from yesterday which had the endorsed candidate leading Bysiewicz by 29 percent (a far cry from Linda McSteroids' internal having the WWE queen leading Shays by 41 points vs the Q-Poll lead of 29 points).

2. If you take into consideration the Q-Poll's margin of error (+/- 4.2 points), Murphy's favorables are basically unchanged along with a large percentage of people polled.

Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

You can read the (sort of) areas of concern below the fold...

3. In the general, McMahon's (sort of) closes the gap on Murphy.

If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote?

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

Before Democrats start sounding alarm bells, lets think about this for a second...Q-Poll Director Doug Schwartz gives the clues.

Number 1:

"McMahon has been dominating the airwaves and it appears to be paying off."

Unlike Murphy, McMahon has been flooding the airwaves with ads that all but ignores Shays and are directed at voters in the general election. This is a stark contrast to Chris Murphy who has not been the airwaves...which brings me to Schwartz's next quote:

"McMahon also is benefitting from a huge name recognition advantage after her 2010 Senate campaign. The other three candidates are unknown to over 40 percent of the electorate," Schwartz said. Presidential Race

Again, at this point, Murphy's campaign is not in general election mode, which could very likely explain his high unknown numbers. Again, this is in contrast to McMahon who is in essence already running in general election mode.

More...

Do you think Chris Murphy has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?

For the exception of Republicans, across the board, Murphy is seen as the candidate that has what it takes to be Senator....now look at his Republican frontrunner counterpart.

Do you think Linda McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not?

As you can see, when it comes to experience, across the board Murphy (the candidate who is not on the airwaves) leads McMahon (who is on the airwaves).

In short, for a candidate who is still in primary mode versus a candidate who is already in general campaign mode (and has to deal with an ever-annoying albatross around her neck), Murphy is still in good shape...that being said, it might be time for Murphy to put Bysiewicz in his rear view mirrors and focus on the general.

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