Political Notes (10/28/2012): WHAZZUP?

As we rapidly approach elections, SuperPac's keep spending money in support or opposition of NJ candidates. There has been only one new local House poll this past week, and we have seen only small and not statistically significant changes in the presidential election race, with Obama continuing ahead of Romney in NJ.

We may lack the most closely contested, hottest local races in the country, but SuperPAC's are still spending money for and against NJ candidates. Just in the last two months alone, according to Federal Election Commission data, SuperPACs have reported independent expenditures of over $2 million for Garden State office seekers. (These monies are spent directly by the SuperPacs and are separate from what individuals, corporations, party headquarters and others donate directly to candidates.) Below is the rundown as of yesterday's data:  

  •   $833,000 in support of incumbent Senator Robert Menendez - The largest amount was from Majority PAC which calls itself "aggressive Democratic strategists with one mission: "Protect the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate." The group provides monies in support of Democrats and in opposition to Republican candidates like Mourdock and Aiken who share crackpot ideas about rape, abortion and women's heath. The average of the four most recent polls, according to Real Clear Politics indicates, Menendez is ahead by 18.5% points.

  •   $468,000 In in support of Republican Shmuley Boteach (CD 9) - entirely from Patriot Prosperity funded by Big Spender and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. This amount does not include another $500,000 that Adelson said he would contribute to Boteach's campaign against Bill Pascrell in this solid Democratic district. Adelson's money won't win the race, but every dollar spent in NJ helps our economy, and turnout remains important.  

  •   $410,000 in support of Republican candidate for Senate Joe Kyrillos, also entirely from Patriot Prosperity. Kyrillos as mentioned above is 18.5 points behind Senator Menendez in the polls. Kyrillos this week launched his first negative TV ad, while Menendez remains positive.

  •   $342,000 in opposition to Democrat Shelley Adler challenger in CD 3 entirely paid for by Congressional Leadership Fund, referred to by some as House Speaker John Boehner's Super PAC.

  •   $73,000 in support of incumbent Republican Jon Runyan (CD 3) from such groups as the NRA, National Right to Life and the Lunchpail Republicans. The only available poll is from Stockton, and statistically significant, with Runyan ahead of Adler by 10 points, but with 12% of voters undecided. Turnout and undecideds are critical.

    The one new recent poll from Stockton, statistically significant, in CD 2 has nine-term incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo ahead 54% to 34% for underfunded Democrat challenger Cassandra Shober - leaving 12% in the Undecided or Other columns.

    For additional national and local information go beyond the fold.
    Real Clear Politics has in its average of four most recent polls (including yesterday's Philaldelphia Inquirer poll) Obama ahead of Romney by 11.8 points in New Jersey, all statistically significant. Nationally, the Real Clear Politics average of ten most recent tracking polls this morning had Romney ahead of Obama by 0.9 points, but only one of the 10 polls included are statistically significant. The Real Clear Politics average of Electoral College Vote Maps this morning has Obama with 201 electoral votes, Romney with 191 votes, and 146 Toss Up votes. These maps are based on individual state polls with the Solid and Likely Republican and Democratic states based often on statistically significant polling results, but the Leaning and Toss Up states based primarily on statistically insignificant polling results. Hence, we have a horse race with significant statistical uncertainty where the last minute ground game, selective advertising and turnout can make all the difference.

    GOTV and helping Shelley Adler (CD 3), Upendra Chivukula (CD7), and Marie Corfield (LD 16) is of utmost importance. Even in districts where there is little opportunity for a Democrat to win a House seat, turnout for Obama and Menendez remains necessary. Also, for those who can, helping in Pennsylvania makes sense, because there are 20 electoral votes there that Obama needs, efforts at voter suppression, and Electoral Maps which are either leaning Democrat or Toss Up.

    Who knows what effect Sandy may have on these elections, but it appears we are in for very rough weather.  With both politics and bad weather taking action early makes sense.  

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