Many of the 09/30/2012 congressional candidate reports to the Federal Elections Commission are now available. The reports cover the 2011-2012 election cycle. The reports at this juncture are one indication of the likely winner in most races.
Congressional Districts in which the opponent has reported spending less than $80,000 - an insufficient sum to launch a successful campaign against an incumbent
CD 01 Likely winner: Incumbent Democrat Robert E. Andrews
CD 02 Likely winner: Incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo
CD 11 Likely Winner: Incumbent Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen
CD 12 Likely winner: Incumbent Democrat Rush Holt
Congressional Districts in which there is yet no opponent's report through 9/30/2012 but the opponent had indicated no income nor expenses through 06/30/2012
CD 05 Likely winner: Incumbent Republican Scott Garrett. (note: although there is no report yet from the opponent, a campaign committee of his reported expenses of $16,305 through 09/30/2012)
CD 08 Likely winner: Incumbent Democrat Albio Sires
CD 10 Likely winner: Freholder/Councilman Donald Payne, Jr.
The two most competitive districts where the winner is yet to be determined
CD 03 Incumbent Republican Jon Runyan has spent $1,110,088 and has $738,326 cash on hand. Shelley Adler has spent $759,818 and has $174,932 cash on hand.
CD 07 Republican Incumbent Leonard Lance has spent $945,523 and has $400,972 on hand. Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula has spent $632,283 and has $140,920 on hand.
Other Districts
CD 04 Likely winner: Incumbent Republican Christopher Smith who has spent $312,402 and has $350,002 cash on hand. The Democrat opponent Brian Froelich's most recent report of 06/30/2012 indicated expenditures of $10,131 and $11,213 cash on hand.
CD 06 Likely winner: Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone who has spent $1,308,126 and has $3,463,830 cash on hand. Republican Anna Little has spent $341,075 and has $52,151 cash on hand.
CD 09 Likely winner Democrat Rep. Bill Pascrell (incumbent in CD 08) has spent $3,003,796 and has $434,279 cash on hand. Rabbi Shmuley Boteach has spent $209,279 and has $58,271 cash on hand. His total reported receipts during the cycle are $267,550. Thus there is little or no sign yet of the two contributions reported in the press of $500,000 each from Sheldon Adelson to Rabbi Boteach.
In spite of the famous song, it's not just love and marriage that go together like a horse and carriage.
