Blip-bounce beats Negative-bounce

 Polls are enigmatic things, but even with all their flaws, we are told they supply a snapshot of where public attitudes are at a given moment. This recent Gallup poll, if I understand correctly, sampled non-unlikely, undecided non-committed voters and improbably independent voters between the ages of forty two. They did adjust for wind-speed and naturally the overall results have a possible credibility interval which was compensated for.  

Seriously, it does appear Obama got a bounce, however small in his approval rating:

Gallup’s daily tracking poll for Friday put Obama's job approval rating at 52 percent, the highest it’s been since the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters (48-45 percent), up from Obama's one-point margin over the last nine days.

Gallup cautions that up-ticks are often fleeting and may be short-lived, but they say if Obama built on his lead this could signal a possible “resetting” of the race. So results may vary and contents may settle during transit.

Romney/Ryan and the difficult “negative bounce”  
Some polling done shortly after the Republican Convention found that Romney and Ryan experienced hardly any bounce at all. Incredibly The Princeton Election Consortium found that team Romney may have created for themselves a “negative bounce":

Basically, their convention appears to have helped…Obama. […] From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in the hosting party’s favor.  

The Consortium suggests two factors that may have created this unusual situation for Romney/Ryan:  

(1) The Ryan-VP bounce effectively used up whatever room there was for a bounce. This year, opinion seems to be fluctuating in a very narrow range: Obama up by 1.0-5.0%. Maybe there was no room for improvement.

(2) The GOP convention was not particularly inspiring. Indeed, the most notable event was Clint Eastwood’s empty-chair routine, which overshadowed Romney’s acceptance speech.

So explore the numbers behind the Romney/Ryan “negative bounce” phenomena.

Where they really shot in the feet from an empty chair?  

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