We have work to do on both amendments

A new poll came out last night from KSTP/SurveyUSA. Let's dispense with the KSTP/Stan Hubbard/GOP talking points; SurveyUSA is a perfectly credible pollster, and their results speak for themselves: we have work to do on both constitutional amendments. In particular, they show the marriage discrimination amendment leading 50-43 with 8% undecided.

Now there are a few caveats about this result. One is that a non-vote is the same as a no-vote, and this tends to soften the "yes" results at the ballot box ever so slightly. Like it or not, some voters simply forget to vote on the back of their ballot, or are in a hurry, or whatever. But a non-vote is nevertheless the same as a "no", so that helps us.

The second factor that I think SurveyUSA may be missing is the media narrative on the ground Especially in rural Minnesota, editorials have been almost uniformly opposed to this amendment, and for good reasons. That will matter come Election Day.

Third, Ron Paul conservatives don't like this kind of government invasion on social issues, and I think there's a very decent chance SUSA has undersampled them. But you'd have to ask SUSA about that.

Fourth, it's pretty evident that the Metro area sample is weird. Drive around town and let me know how many VOTE NO signs you see, and then how many VOTE YES signs. Then add back in the VOTE NO signs that have been stolen or vandalized, and you have a situation that dramatically belies SUSA's 48-percent-in-favor result in the area. If it's the case that supporters are simply ashamed to show it publicly, then good. They should stay home on election day, or perhaps reflect on why they feel that way. Bigotry should be shamed.

So we'll wait on the crosstabs, as I'm sure there's more to be released over the course of the week from this poll. Clearly, we have work to do if we're going to defeat these things, but it's worth noting that this poll actually represents positive movement since July. We're headed in the right direction -- we simply need to amp up the effort.

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