Foster / Biggert Neck and Neck in 11?

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NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELESGLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM

MEMORANDUM

TO:

Interested Parties

FROM:

Global Strategy Group

RE:

Illinois 11th Congressional District

DATE: 09.04.12

Biggert Vulnerable in Race for U.S. Congress

Longtime incumbent sits below the 50% Mark

After more than 30 years in politics, Judy Biggert is struggling to hold on to her seat in Congress,according to a recent survey of 401 likely voters in Illinois' 11

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Congressional District conducted by GlobalStrategy Group between August 27 and August 29, 2012. The margin of error at the 95% confidencelevel is +/- 4.9%.Key findings include:

Biggert sits well below the 50% mark:

Judy Biggert sits well below the 50% mark, a realsign of vulnerability for incumbents. Biggert (43%) and her challenger, Bill Foster (42%), arelocked in a dead heat with just 15% of voters still undecided at this time.

Biggert's unfavorable ratings are two times higher than Foster's:

At a time whenRepublicans in Congress are very unpopular, Biggert's own unfavorable ratings (29%unfavorable) are nearly twice as high as her challenger, Bill Foster's (15% unfavorable). Thisdynamic suggests Biggert may be forced to run a more negative campaign, a theory that issupported by the fact that she has already dropped negative mail against Foster.

The partisan environment in the district favors Democrats:

Voters in the district self-identify as Democrats by a 7-point margin and a generic Democratic candidate for Congressleads a generic Republican candidate for Congress by 5 points, 46% to 41%.

The top of the ticket is a drag on Biggert:

While voters in the district view Mitt Romneyunfavorably (net -7 points), Barack Obama receives a positive favorability rating (net +10points) and leads the Presidential contest by 8 points.

The bottom line is this:

After more than 3 decades in politics, Judy Biggert's political future is uncertain.The voters in Illinois' 11

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Congressional District are hesitant to re-elect the longtime incumbent andinstead are looking toward scientist and businessman Bill Foster to represent them in Congress

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